Module 12: Conspiracy Theories

This lecture has three parts. They deal with the questions:

• What are conspiracy theories?
• Why do people believe conspiracy theories?
• What is wrong with conspiracy theories?

What are conspiracy theories?

A first question about Conspiracy Theories is: what exactly is a Conspiracy Theory? In the following video, I explain how Conspiracy Theories are not just theories about conspiracies. In addition, I explain Cassam's idea that conspiracy theories function as a form of political propaganda (even when they are about the Beatles!). Learn more:

Why do people believe Conspiracy Theories?

A next question is: if Conspiracy Theories are unlikely true, not based on sound evidence or scientific expert knowledge, why are they so popular? I put this part of the lecture already under "Reading". Here it is again, so that you have everything in one page. In Chapter 2 of his book (which isn’t on the pensum), Cassam argues that the answer is complicated (I know this is a bit boring as a response, but, as Cassam argues, unlike Conspiracy Theories – that always feel like an exciting novel or crime series – the truth is sometimes like that). I will go into this here a bit more, since it is important and interesting, but not part of the readings:

Cassam discusses many factors:

1. The producers and spreaders of Conspiracy Theories often profit (in sometimes pretty direct ways) from the spread and production of those Theories. They are, in the words of Cass Sunstein “conspiracy entrepreneurs.” You can literally buy a coffee mug in support of a conspiracy theorist like Alex Jones. And, of course, money is made on youtube and Instagram as well.
2. Cassam also discusses psychological research on Conspiracy Theories. Some well-known psychological biases arguably make us predisposed to Conspiracy Theories
   • Intentionality Bias: we tend to look for a purpose or intention, even if something in fact was just bad luck or an accident.
   • Confirmation Bias: We tend to look for evidence that confirms what we already believe – and find that evidence easy to find (see here).
   • Proportionality Bias: we tend to think that a “big” event must have a “big” cause
     • As in: “how could something as dramatic as the current pandemic have been caused by some accidental contact between bats and humans at some random meat market in Wuhan. Surely, there must have been some similarly dramatic intention behind it – Chinese grab for world power, maybe?”
   • While arguably not a bias, another psychological tendency that inclines us toward conspiracy theories may be that they often satisfy our search for meaning in the world – arguably also what fuels religious beliefs.
3. There is also the fact that conspiracy theories are good stories. They have the character of a crime series, a comic book of superheroes and villains. We like good stories. They entertain, are fun, gives us something to think about. Someone might start down some conspiratory rabbit hole just because of the curious fascinating character of the story (indeed, in preparing for this lecture, I couldn’t resist the urge to find out more about “an inter-dimensional race of reptilian beings called the Archons have hijacked the earth and are stopping humanity from realising its true potential.”  (I mean, seriously, that’s just too cool!)

The psychological biases and the seductive appeal of conspiracy theories, Cassam argues, by themselves, though cannot really explain why some people under some circumstances follow Conspiracy Theories – since not all of us follow them – I liked the reptilian story but for no moment did I believe it! (note, that I deliberately write “follow” instead of “believe” since arguably quite a few consumers of conspiracy theories don’t really believe them (they bullshit, or are “just asking questions”)). This leads then to the next part of the explanation

4. This next part is that arguably, some people have certain character traits that makes them more inclined to conspiracy theories
   • Cassam points to evidence that Conspiracy followers tend to have a monological belief system: they tend to connect everything with everything. Interestingly, for example, people who have those tendencies, then, are inclined to follow even contradictory Conspiracy Theories: the Theory that Princess Diana is still alive and the Theory that she was murdered.
   • In earlier work Cassam referred to the intellectual vices behind conspiracy theories. Now, he speaks of a certain ideology “conspiracism”: certain ways of forming beliefs, and basic assumptions about the world.
5. But this isn’t all, according to Cassam. Aside from psychology, we also need to look at the political side of the production, spreading, and consumption of conspiracy theories. One aspect of this is a strong association between political extremism and conspiracy theories. As Cassam argued earlier (see “What are Conspiracy Theories”) Conspiracy Theories normally function as political propaganda. One reason people spread them (and appeal to our like for good stories, and our biases) is in order to set certain political agendas, to undermine well functioning democracy with its role for experts (see Module 9 on Experts, Democracy, and Experts and Laypeople). Not everyone who believes conspiracy theories is an extremist. But it is a risk factor.
6. Another political aspect is that attraction to Conspiracy Theories tends to go along with the real or felt political marginalization. If you know that the government can sometimes intentionally infect people with syphilis, then what else is it capable of?

Another factor, not so much discussed by Cassam, is central to the reading by Levy is that experts (whose opinion, according to the Conspiracy Theorist, is always on the other side), in a heavily polarized political situation, can themselves be viewed as one-sided since their allegiance is with “the other” political side, because they are the opinion of experts: “expert opinion”, in the US context, may, for example, come to stand for “liberal”. This may explain why (currently at least) conspiracy theories in the US, for example, tend to spread amongst conservatives.

What is the Problem with Conspiracy Theories?

Now that we know what Conspiracy Theories are, and why so many people produce them, spread them, and consume them, we want to know: well, what then is wrong about that? What is wrong about Conspiracy Theories? Learn more here: